Dynamic interpretation of commercial vehicle policies

Introduction

The change in this round of policies is not about how much money has been subsidized, but about it starting to provide assessable indicators, calculable criteria, and traceable ledgers. When policies shift from "encouragement" to "lock-in", the focus of competition also shifts from product capabilities to the ability to turn policy dividends into predictable costs for users.

1、 Goal locking: the step from "promotion" to "assessment"

On May 29, 2026, the Ministry of Transport, together with the National Development and Reform Commission and 11 other departments, jointly issued the "Implementation Plan for Promoting the Large scale Application of New Energy Heavy Trucks", which clarifies that by 2030, the penetration rate of new energy heavy trucks will reach 40%, the number of vehicles will exceed 1.6 million, and the proportion of all heavy trucks will be about 20%; Plan approximately 30000 kilometers of zero carbon highway transportation channels around the core freight sections of the national highway network with "5 shots, 4 verticals, and 5 horizontals", and guide the layout of approximately 3000 electric heavy-duty truck charging and swapping stations.

Signal 1: Three indicators are given simultaneously, which govern three different things. The increment of permeability pipes, the inventory of retained quantity pipes, and the proportion of pipe structure. In the past, similar documents often used directional expressions such as "accelerating promotion" and "encouraging applications". This time, by directly providing assessable figures, it means that the policy goal has shifted from "how many cars were sold" to "what kind of cars are running on the road".

Signal 2: The road and station appear side by side with the vehicle target. Writing the channel and the charging and swapping station in the same document is equivalent to acknowledging that the ceiling of new energy heavy-duty trucks is not in the overall production capacity, but in the density of the supplementary energy network.

What does it mean for the industry. The standard for users to judge whether an electric heavy-duty truck can be used will change from "how much range" to "whether there are stops on my line". The delivery boundary of the whole vehicle enterprise is expanding from here - who can explain the replenishment conditions on the routes that customers often run on, whose product description can stand firm. The specific terms shall be subject to the official documents and local implementation rules.

A judgment. Don't read 1.6 million vehicles as a market forecast, it is a goal that requires the support of the power grid, land, freight rates, and road rights. After the goal is written into the document, the real variable shifts from policy to execution rhythm.

2、 22 billion: The key to subsidies lies in the structure, not in the total amount

The Notice on the Implementation of Scrapping and Updating of Old Operating Trucks in 2026 specifies that 22 billion yuan of ultra long term special treasury bond will be arranged in 2026 to support the scrapping and updating of medium and heavy operating trucks (including diesel and natural gas) with national emission standards of three and four countries, and the priority will be given to supporting the upgrading to electric trucks. Subsidies are set differently based on the type of scrapped vehicle, scrapping time, and power type of newly purchased vehicles. Scrap subsidies and new purchase subsidies can be combined, with a maximum of about 140000 yuan in some cases. Local governments generally implement incremental measures, including preferential tolls for highways within the province and financial subsidies for loan purchases; The fund management follows the principles of "total amount control, electric priority, first come, first served, and use up", and is open for declaration in batches.

Signal 1: Differentiated subsidies are price leverage, not money. For the same old car, swapping for an electric one is much more common than swapping for a National VI; The longer the remaining useful life, the more scrap will be replenished - essentially using funds to purchase the time for "early exit".

Signal 2: 'First come, first served' is a deliberately reserved rhythm tool. Batch issuance and quota locking will form a centralized replacement pulse at each declaration window. For users, time itself is also a cost.

Signal 3: Local supporting facilities are supplementing the cost of use. Toll discounts and loan interest subsidies are closer to cash flow than one-time subsidies - the purchase cost only occurs once, and toll and interest are incurred on a monthly basis.

What does it mean for the industry. The practical threshold is not low: the registered owners of scrapped and newly purchased vehicles must be completely consistent, and the operating certificate, vehicle model catalog, and other conditions must be met simultaneously; There are significant differences in the application methods among different regions. Some apply directly online, while others make appointments for lottery and lottery, and then apply within a limited time.

A judgment. Treat subsidies as a 'starter', not an 'engine'. The subsidy determines when to change, not whether or not to change. The three lines that truly determine the pace of replacement are the energy price difference between diesel and electricity, the level of freight rates, and the residual value of vehicles. The three lines are running smoothly, and the subsidy only advances the critical point by one to two quarters; Unable to get through, no matter how high the bicycle subsidy is, it can only exchange for a short-term pulse of "buying cars for subsidies", followed by the inevitable off-season.

3、 Emissions and Energy Efficiency: National VI is Tightened, with National VI at the Door

In February 2026, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment proposed to accelerate the development of National Emission Standards for motor vehicles during the 15th Five Year Plan period; In April of the same year, the draft for soliciting opinions on National VI passed the technical review. The direction is clear: upgrading from "pollutant emission control" to "coordinated control of pollutants and greenhouse gases", adding unconventional pollutants such as NMOG and HCHO, and including non exhaust emissions such as brake dust and tire wear particles in regulation. The official implementation schedule for National VI has not yet been announced, and the industry generally expects it to be around 2028. The final decision will be based on official documents.

The change that is more certain than National VI is the National VI amendment that is already being implemented. Starting from May 1, 2026, mandatory registration of software calibration identification codes (CALID) and calibration verification codes (CVN) will be added at the software level, and requirements for precious metal detection of three-way catalytic converters will be added at the hardware level. This set of rules is not about "how many rows", but about "whether the actual state of the vehicle in use is consistent with the announcement".

A more easily overlooked line is on the energy efficiency side. The first amendment to GB 20997-2024 will be publicly solicited for opinions in July 2026, and it is suggested to implement it from January 1, 2028: cancel the transitional benefits such as "zero electricity consumption conversion" and production multiples for new energy vehicle models, unify them back to actual production weighting, and establish two enterprise average evaluation paths for fuel consumption and carbon dioxide emissions, which only need to meet one of them.

What does it mean for the industry. In the past few years, as long as new energy vehicle models are introduced in the field of light commercial vehicles, the average value of enterprises can be improved by "zero value+multiple". Under the new caliber, vehicle models with large body size, high curb weight, average three electric efficiency, or high thermal management energy consumption will enter the average value based on certified electricity consumption - the more new energy is sold, the harder it is to conceal the negative contribution of inefficient vehicle models. The transition from a single track to a double track evaluation path may seem to provide room for choice, but in reality, it requires companies to establish a corresponding bottom table of "vehicle type fuel type certified energy consumption target value sales volume", otherwise compliance gaps may not be discovered until the end of the year.

A judgment. This is the most easily underestimated policy in this round. The judgment it conveys is that "whether it is new energy" has taken a back seat, and "whether new energy itself is efficient" has begun to enter the assessment field. What enterprises need to recalculate is not just one or two announced car models, but the main sales structure and production schedule from 2026 to 2030.

4、 Carbon ledger: why commercial vehicles are harder to calculate than passenger cars

The proportion of carbon emissions from commercial vehicles to the total carbon emissions from automobiles has risen to about 65%, with heavy-duty trucks accounting for about 40% of carbon emissions in the transportation sector. The industry's research direction around carbon management mechanisms is to focus on carbon intensity in the early stages of use and implement average carbon credit management for enterprises; Starting from 2028, a transitional period will be established; Guide the seven types of vehicle groups, including light commercial and heavy commercial, respectively; Adhere to technological neutrality and convert oil, gas, alcohol, electricity, and hydrogen into carbon dioxide equivalents for coordinated carbon reduction. It should be clarified that this is still the direction of industry research and has not yet formed a formally introduced policy.

Signal 1: 'Technology neutrality' is the foundation of the entire design. Policies do not choose a route for industries, only assess the results of carbon reduction. For enterprises with multiple parallel routes, this is the choice space; For companies that only bet on a single route, this is equivalent to requiring them to bear the risk of judgment themselves.

Signal 2: The assessment is focused on the usage phase. The operational intensity of commercial vehicles is much higher than that of passenger cars, and a heavy-duty truck can reach a full life cycle mileage of over 600000 kilometers, with the vast majority of carbon emissions generated in every day of use.

What does it mean for the industry. The fleet operator will become the direct target of policy for the first time. In the past, policies focused on 'who can make cars', but now they are starting to focus on' who is using cars and how to use them '. Charging scheduling, route planning, empty driving rate control, and the matching efficiency of "vehicle road cargo energy" will shift from optional cost optimization items to mandatory compliance related questions.

A judgment. The significance of carbon credits for commercial vehicles lies not in whether there is an additional cost, but in the potential emergence of new pricing units. When emission reductions can be uniformly converted, accounted for, and measured, transportation capacity itself has a new pricing dimension - the products delivered by vehicle companies will no longer be just products, but a set of verifiable emission reduction plans.

5、 Intelligent driving: standards come first, commercialization follows

The mandatory national standard of Safety Requirements for auto drive system of Intelligent Connected Vehicles (GB 44721-2026) has been approved for release and will be implemented from July 1, 2027. It is applicable to passenger and cargo carrying vehicles equipped with L3 and L4 auto drive system. Previously, the "Code for Safe Passage of Intelligent Connected Vehicle Road Testing and Demonstration Applications" (GA/T 2388-2026) was implemented on July 1, 2026, unifying the testing and demonstration application rules in various regions. As of May 2026, over 7800 kilometers of highways in China have opened for commercial trial operation of L4 level autonomous driving freight trucks. At the same time, the "Implementation Plan for Logistics Network Construction" proposed to standardize the deployment of unmanned trucks and other vehicles in closed parks and ports; The "15th Five Year Plan for the Development of Intelligent Connected New Energy Vehicle Industry" proposes to carry out multi scenario demonstration applications such as autonomous driving mainline logistics.

Signal 1: Safety standards should be established first, and entry thresholds should be set later. The mandatory national standard pushes autonomous driving from "technical verification" to "product access" - the discussion is no longer about whether it can be done, but about to what extent it can be sold and put on the road.

Signal 2: The order of openness is ranked according to "environmental controllability", not according to commercial value. The closed park and port station will be released first, followed closely by the main highway, and finally at the end of the city. The controllable environment technology has low difficulty and clear responsibility boundaries. Only by running smoothly can data be accumulated for open scenarios.

What does it mean for the industry. Mainline logistics is a direction that is relatively easy to closed-loop in commercial scenarios: fixed routes, clear nodes, and centralized shippers. However, the compatibility of inter provincial road rights rules, accident liability determination mechanism, and insurance pricing are still breakpoints. Technical issues can be solved through mileage and data, while institutional issues can only be resolved through collaborative rules.

A judgment. The probability of determining the speed of commercialization is not algorithm accuracy, but the pricing ability of liability and insurance. The account is only established when the carrier can calculate how much it saves by having one less safety officer and how much it costs to have one more insurance. Before the implementation of the national standard in 2027, what the industry really needs to prepare are accident data, responsibility allocation plans, and insurance products, rather than just running a few more rounds of road tests.

6、 Market side: The total volume is increasing, but not in the same area

From January to September 2026, the production and sales of commercial vehicles reached 3.279 million and 3.311 million respectively, an increase of 6.1% and 6.2% year-on-year. Exported 1.039 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 38.8%, including 910000 trucks exported, an increase of 42.4%, and 129000 buses exported, an increase of 17.8%. The sales of new energy commercial vehicles reached 893000 units, a year-on-year increase of 41.7%. In September, the domestic sales of new energy commercial vehicles accounted for 46.6% of the domestic sales of commercial vehicles, and the cumulative proportion from January to September was 35.2%. By vehicle type, the sales of heavy-duty trucks reached 929000 units, an increase of 13%, medium-sized trucks reached 103000 units, an increase of 16.4%, light trucks reached 1.541 million units, an increase of 4%, and micro trucks reached 305000 units, a decrease of 4%.

Signal: Behind the 6.2% overall growth, there are two growth sources with different properties. The contribution of exports is incremental, while the contribution of new energy is structural, and their sustainability is not the same.

What does it mean for the industry. The electrification of urban distribution and short distance fixed routes has been basically completed; The electrification progress of trunk transportation, mountainous routes, and inter provincial bulk freight transportation almost entirely depends on the maturity of the energy replenishment conditions along the way. Regional differentiation is also evident - the penetration rate in the central and southwestern regions has increased faster than in the north, which is the result of the combined effects of local industrial chain completeness, logistics scene density, and local support efforts.

A judgment. It is no longer applicable to judge the commercial vehicle landscape based on the overall growth rate. A more accurate way to read it is to look at the structure: micro trucks are experiencing negative growth, while medium and heavy-duty trucks are maintaining double-digit growth, indicating that demand is returning from "end of pipe distribution" to the basic sector of "means of production". The competitiveness of products in the next few years depends on whether they can cover multiple scenarios with significant differences in operational intensity on the same platform architecture.

Conclusion

Firstly, policies have shifted from providing direction to providing indicators. The next gap is not in the ability to interpret policies, but in the execution of indicators - whether the density of energy replenishment networks, the pricing mechanism for residual value of second-hand cars, and the service radius can keep up. These three things are not in the document, but each one determines whether the indicators can be implemented.

Secondly, the decision-making power of the technological route has returned to the hands of the enterprise itself. Technical neutrality means there is no standard answer that can be followed. When planning a product, it is even more important to first think clearly about one thing: which line my customers are running on and whether the energy supply on that line can support them. If this question cannot be answered clearly, the route selection can only follow the crowd.

Thirdly, the beneficiaries of this round of policies are more likely to be participants who turn "accounting ability" into products and services. Users are no longer just buying a car, but a predictable operating cost. Whoever can put energy price differences, toll discounts, subsidy cash flow, residual value, and carbon assets into the same table is closer to the real decision-making scenario of users.